The hottest November economic data released today,

November economic data released today CPI or hit a new low within the year

November economic data released today CPI or hit a new low within the year

China Construction machinery information

Guide: it is reported that the National Bureau of Statistics will release November macroeconomic data today (9th). The price of edible agricultural products continues the previous slight downward trend month on month, and the tail raising factor also continues to fall sharply compared with October. It is generally judged by insiders, In November, China's CPI index is likely to fall below 5%, and even

it is reported that the National Bureau of statistics will release the macroeconomic data of November today (9th). The price of edible agricultural products will continue the previous slight downward trend month on month. Coupled with the fact that the tail raising factor also continues to fall sharply compared with October, industry insiders generally judge that China's CP in November is likely to fall below 5% or even to 4.3%, a new low this year to avoid large losses caused by loose fasteners. Does this mean that there is room for monetary policy

the weather is getting colder and colder, and the demand for vegetables, eggs and poultry in the vegetable market has increased significantly. Many people are worried that prices will also rise. But this year is different from the past. Since November, vegetable prices and meat prices have turned downward. Food is the main contributor to CPI. Therefore, many market participants generally expect that the CPI in November to be released will be less than 5%, and most of them are expected to increase by about 4.3% to 4.5% year-on-year

the chief analyst teacher of Hongyuan securities fixed income headquarters is: the pork price in November fell by nearly 5% month on month compared with October, so only the pork price will pull the CPI down by about 0.15%, then plus other food prices also fell month on month, so in this case of food prices falling, we judge that the CPI in November should be about 4.4% by using the photoelectric code disk to feed back the electromechanical speed information

Lu Zhengwei, chief economist of Industrial Bank, believes that in addition to food factors, non food month on month prices have not increased, but are near zero, which is also an inevitable factor for the sharp decline in CPI

at the same time, the tail raising factor also showed a sharp correction in November, which will also have a corresponding pulling effect on CPI

Lian Ping, chief economist of Bank of Communications: from the perspective of the base, there is a tail raising factor, and there is a relatively obvious drop in November, about 1%, so it is more likely to drop to 4.3% year-on-year

although Cao Yuanzheng, chief economist of BOC International, agrees that CPI may fall deeply this month, he believes that the final result should be about 5%, which also indicates that the CPI level of this year will meet the target set at the beginning of this year

Caoyuanzheng: basically, it is a trend from high to low, and food prices play a very important role this year. Because food prices fell in the second half of the year, CPI went down, so it went faster every month. The annual price level should certainly affect the normal work at about 5.2%

Cao Yuanzheng predicts that the CPI level will be around 4% next year. It is precisely because of the reduction of inflationary pressure that the effect of monetary policy is prominent. Many analysts believe that this shows that there is room for policy relaxation in the future

in Lian Ping's view, the possibility of reducing the deposit reserve at the end of the year is not ruled out, and there will be a possibility of reducing it at the beginning of next year. It is estimated that there will probably be two to four reductions from now to the whole Mingdao hammer year, but it should also be judged by referring to the capital flow

however, guotianyong, a professor at the school of finance of the Central University of Finance and economics, pointed out that although prices are an important starting point for monetary policy regulation, they are not the only important starting point. If you see an obvious downward trend in CPI, you should immediately adjust the monetary direction, especially under the current imperfect financial regulation mechanism or system, it is unwise to rely solely on monetary policies such as reducing deposit reserves to achieve the purpose of regulating the economy

guotianyong: from China's experience, after the pure relaxation of currency, our original intention is to release these currencies, which can flow to small and medium-sized enterprises, strategic emerging industries, including agriculture, rural areas and farmers. However, due to our imperfect regulation mechanism, including our price mechanism in terms of interest rates, there is little room to play, so the released currency often flows to fixed asset investment, real estate and other fields. On the one hand, there will be hidden dangers including inflation and asset prices. On the other hand, the proportion of investment and fixed assets in the whole GDP will be higher and higher, which violates the original intention of adjusting the economic structure, or may lead to a more unreasonable economic structure. Therefore, guotianyong judged that monetary policy will focus on maintaining stability in the future