The hottest November Asian market pulp prices fell

The pulp price in the Asian market fell in November, and may still fall down in the short term

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core tip: [China Packaging News] after the international pulp price remained flat in the Asian market in October, it reversed and fell in November. Some market participants expect that the pulp price may fall due to the weakening demand in a short time.

[China Packaging News] after the international pulp price remained flat in the Asian market in October, it reversed and fell in November. Some market participants expect that the pulp price may decline due to the weakening demand in a short time, but in the long run, the pulp price still shows an upward trend

since the fourth quarter of the previous year, the international pulp price has started a period of high growth, rapid growth and unprecedented Long-band rise, and even reached a record high. In the first half of this year, although the international pulp prices in major markets showed a trend of rising and then flat, they basically belonged to an upward trend. However, due to the large increase in the pulp price in the Asian market from the fourth quarter of last year to January this year, the pulp price in the European and American markets fluctuated more after February and March

until the beginning of the third quarter, the international pulp price remained roughly flat in the Asian market, and finally showed a sharp correction in August, mainly due to the reduction of NBSK quotation, but soon, the NBSK price, which fell only in September, rose in the opposite direction, while the short fiber quotation (mainly bek eucalyptus pulp) remained roughly flat

in the third quarter of the pulp price trend in the European and American markets, the long and short fiber prices in the European market are also basically flat in each month, but due to the strong domestic demand in the American market, the long and short fiber prices are almost all the way up

in October at the beginning of the fourth quarter, the pulp price in the Asian market remained unchanged. CanFor, a large Canadian company with two pulp lines with an annual production capacity of 600000 tons, had shut down the pulp line for maintenance since late September due to boiler damage. The time was as long as days, and it was estimated that the output of NBSK would be reduced by about 10000 tons. Therefore, it was announced that the price of NBSK in the Asian market would be increased by $30 per ton in October, but it was ultimately rejected by the downstream

in addition, the European market is also flat as the Asian market. Only the international pulp price in the U.S. market continues to rise. Obviously, the market supply and demand is quite active and is not affected by the Sino US trade war

according to the latest report of pppc (pulp paperproductscouncil) in Canada, the total installed volume of pulp in the international market in September was 46 to 24000 tons by 2020, an increase of 4.4% over the previous month and 7.1% over the same period last year. Among them, the sales to the North American market is estimated to be 642000 tons, an increase of 3.9% over the previous month and a decrease of 6% over the same period last year. The shipment to the Western European market is estimated to be 1.326 million tons, an increase of 7.9% over the previous month and an increase of 8.5% over the same period last year. Another 1.49 million tons were exported to the Chinese Mainland market, an increase of 23.3% over the previous month and 16.7% over the same period last year. The ratio of the above shipment volume to the output was 97%, an increase of 11% over the previous month. As shown above, the demand for pulp in the international market in September was quite strong

in terms of inventory, the market pulp inventory at the end of September was 37 days, a decrease of 1 day from the previous month. Among them, bleached long fiber wood pulp maintained the same 33 days as the previous month, while bleached short fiber wood pulp was 41 days, 2 days less than the previous month. From the balance days of long fiber inventory and 39 days of short fiber, the market pulp inventory in September slightly exceeded the normal stock

as for the international pulp price trend in November, the Asian market and the European and American markets still deviate. After a period of strong support in the Asian market, both long and short fibers showed a comprehensive reverse decline. Among them, radial pine fell by $60 per ton, from $880 last month to $820, and long fiber pulp fell by $30, from about $890 per ton to $860. It is reported that the spot price of NBKP from Russia to Chinese Mainland has fallen to $800, while short fiber pulp fell by $10 per ton, and the new price was about $780 (the highest was $805, depending on the conditions of each case)

according to the observation of the industry, the pulp price in the Asian market reversed and fell in an all-round way, which was mainly caused by the cooling market demand in Chinese Mainland and the Sino US trade war, as well as the fact that the pulp inventory of its trade importer was still at a high level. According to the statistics of China Paper Association, in the first three quarters of this year, the production, sales and profits of various types of paper (paper and paperboard) in Chinese Mainland decreased significantly compared with the same period last year. The main reason is that the production cost of the paper industry has increased by at least 1. In China, the regional difference in the total amount of energy distribution is significantly more than 0%, but the rise and fall of paper prices are volatile, and there has been a significant decline recently. Coupled with environmental factors, many paper mills have implemented short-term shutdown plans for their production lines, which has affected their revenue and profits. In particular, industrial paper mills have been affected by the ban, resulting in a significant rise in costs and indirect benefits

as a whole, the rising production cost must be tightened. The rising cost of pulp price accounts for 25%. Coupled with the sharp depreciation of the RMB exchange rate by about 10%, it also raises the cost of pulp import. On the other hand, the reduction of demand makes it difficult for the Chinese Mainland market to maintain a stable pulp price. Since the beginning of this year, pulp import traders in Chinese Mainland have continued to compete for pulp in the international market, which has not only reduced the consumption of local pulp by paper mills, but also made it difficult to digest imported pulp due to the reduced demand, resulting in a sharp increase in the inventory of imported pulp. At present, these inventories need to be removed, which will naturally affect the subsequent volume and price trends

market participants predict that in the short term, Asian pulp prices dominated by Chinese Mainland may move downward. Whether this means that the rising band of plasma prices that has lasted for nearly two years will come to an end temporarily needs further observation

however, in the European and American markets, the pulp price continued to rise. NBSK in the European market increased by US $per ton, with the new price above US $1250, while staple fiber pulp remained flat. In the U.S. market, the price of both long and short fibers was adjusted in the U.S., of which NBSK increased by $30 to $1460, while bek increased by $20, and the new price rose to $1290. However, some industry insiders believe that in the short term, affected by the decline of pulp prices in the Chinese Mainland market, the pulp prices in the European and American markets may adjust downward, and the actual trend is also noteworthy

according to the industry analysis, there will be no new production capacity of international staple fiber pulp on the market by 2020, while a Finnish company will increase the production capacity of 800000 tons of commercial pulp in recent years, so it is estimated that the price of staple fiber pulp will remain stable than that of long fiber pulp in the short term. It is reported that the growth rate of the global total supply of pulp is lower than that of the total demand with the improvement of the working environment, and the new capacity of large pulp mills will not come out until 2020. Therefore, it is expected that the international pulp price will still rise before 2020